So things are going faster - technology changes that is; while as aging happens we all move slower and gradually things start to fail.  Then the world around us keeps moving on, refreshed by a new group of thinkers, who seem to only focus on the mistakes of those that came before, that they must fix and improve.  Not necessarily a bad thought, but when coupled to an inability to recognize their own shortfalls and blind spots, they rapidly come to a natural conclusion and replace minor errors with major mistakes. Doubt the observation? Check the rise and fall of empires, civilization or as we see them now Countries tagged as super powers.  What happened to Egyptian Empire (3000BCE - 332AD)?  Consider those who now occupy China, Russia, Rome and the United Kingdom; and those who have almost been completely forgotten in Central and South America and Africa?  Clear proof of the George Santayana was right when he wrote: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."  Whether you are an individual or an Empire, patterns exist and if you do not recognize them you cannot protect yourself from the bad or find the advantage in the good as the waves of living wash over you.  Were it not  for the life boats of God's love sent to us, we'd all drown and be lost for eternity.  Recognizing those havens of sanity sent to us, whether they be moments of clarity of thought or a stranger with a kind gesture, an angel in disguise of sorts; it's true were it not for God's mercy we'd all be lost and never found.  Just another reason to thank God when the ride gets bumpy - you are not forgotten, He knows exactly what's happening and soon you will understand even as you have been understood - God loves us. 

Write down what you believe; try explaining what you think is true.  Put it in writing then wait a week and come back and read it – be ready to change what you wrote and do not be afraid to change what you think as well.

Most writing is an attempt to capture thoughts bouncing around in your brain, which is why outlining helps organize and capture/isolate competing thoughts. 

Once captured, these thoughts can be organized, adding supporting thoughts/ideas or reject parts that are not adding value. 
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Writing helps you look at your ideas, store them and return later to continue thinking through the confusion of competing ideas with a potential of finding some clarity to lock in an understanding of something important. 

When done systematically you can find what some think of as truth and establish a starting point to add elements to, which can become quite a complicated view of reality. 

An example of this is how children observe life, make decisions about what is real, then mature adding new decisions developed during new experiences and either changes what was believed or become even more convinced they know what is real.  At some point most believe they know what is really true about something and what is not; it is then changing their understanding about what they believe becomes harder.  Some believe there comes a point a mind cannot be changed even when information is presented completely contradicting the understanding previously established.  We are talking about mindset.  

The problem is the ability to think through things and come to a logical conclusion is not something that is being taught to many.  Apparently, it does not happen naturally, common sense it seems is no longer common. For too many, logical thinking and/or critical thinking is a foreign construct. This is not a new issue; it was addressed most effectively by the poet Alexander Pope, in his "An Essay on Criticism", part II, written in 1711 - "A little learning is a dang'rous thing;" [https://www.poetryfoundation.org/articles/69379/an-essay-on-criticism].  

Examples of this can be seen in religion and politics.  It is amazing sometimes what people consider to be facts and truth; and how they are used to defend a preferred position.  I have seen the most corrupt people standing beside the most pious at voting polls trying to garner votes for the same referendum.   The only explanation for such a wonder, neither knows what they believe and they are both blind guides. 

We need a simple approach to building an understanding of what we know  and then we can begin to understand what we believe.  So let’s try to build a process and see what we can learn.

Write a statement - what is believed.
Understand the difference between fact and assumption. 
Fact is something that can be proven to be true, by all, using scientific observation.  End result, each observation returns the same result. 
An assumption is something we accept as true, but we cannot prove it to be a fact.  Most assumptions can be converted into facts.  Such conversion requires time and resources (effort), which is why some rush to conclusions they later regret.  In military planning, an assumption is an unknown fact, which if is not true, the plan will fail.  If wrong you will lose the battle, war, or engagement. 
​Most assumptions can be proven to be a fact given enough time and resources to validate multiple observations. 

Now make two lists:
1. What do I know about my statement?
Can I validate that information?
Is the information available and can I gain access to it.
If yes - verify and accept.

• An exercise for how this works, is take any quotation made in a current article and find the original statement.  Then compare how it was used versus how the author of the quote meant it.  See the above quote of Pope, which often misquoted; learning is not dangerous -- too little learning is.  

If no - is an assumption required?
Ask yourself why is it being made? What is the risk associated making it?  

2. What don’t I know about my statement?
Does information about what I don’t know exist?
If yes, can I get access to it?
If no, what impact does not knowing have on my understanding – is an assumption required?

Explain the impact of any assumptions.
Describe how the new information impacts your belief.
Repeat as necessary and always be open to reprocessing - what I refer to as Socratic failsafe.  The wisest man in Athens was Socrates, because he knew he did not know everything.  
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Life, even to the casual observer never appears to be remotely fair, but on occasion, even that unfair reality takes a drastic turn for the worse and becomes unfathomably evil.  When it does, so many wise and godly people wonder why and look to blame someone. 

The reality is as simple as God exists and loves His children.  God has an enemy and just as God is love, His enemy is hate.  St. John saw this reality and wrote what he understood, so we could withstand the unfairness of this experience called life.  Revelation 12; God who created Heaven and Earth gave us who live on earth and those who live in heaven, the ability to reject Him.  In Heaven, Satan rejected God, fought against Him, lost the war and was thrown out of heaven, down to earth.  Satan knows his time is short and is doing everything in his power to destroy God's work and what God loves - the children of God.  When bad things happen to good people who love God, it's simple; Satan and his children are actively trying to destroy God.  If you cannot get at your enemy to hurt him, you hurt those closest to him that you can get at.  

Unfortunately, the wise and intelligent of this world have chosen to forget the reality of God - a remarkable hold over from the 60's God is Dead movement.  They have chosen to believe in their wisdom, because if God is dead/does not exist, then neither does the enemy of God.  Thus, when the Father of Hate strikes; when the servant of hate does what his father wants, to kill and destroy, there is no one to blame.  So based on their flawed logic people look to explain why this evil just happened and blame someone they don't like. 

So we, who know and love God, who do what God has taught us, who hold on to the truth that God loves us and will never abandon us, we know who is responsible for the unfairness and evil in the world.  In His time God will lift us up and will more than restore us, for nothing can ever separate us from His love.  Whatever loss we think we have experienced, it will be more than restored.  Whatever we think could have been will become more than our imaginations could have dreamed of.  Our trust in God will always be proven worthy; we will never know loss or disappointment when God reveals the reality of our life lived in Him.  Fact: God loves his children, just like He loved His only begotten Son and raised Him up and glorified Him, and so He will raise us up.  

For those who can, let the Holy Spirit that dwells next to your spirit, walk with you, guide you as you comfort and lift up your bothers and sisters in their most difficult of times.   

Everything of value started some where at some time for some reason. 

I wonder what the ratio of great endings compared to the sum total of all things started would look like.  Or if, say you could actually have a hint of, or catch a glimpse of what you were about to begin doing, how it would turn out.  Perhaps it is really a blessing that we cannot see very far into the future, or be able to evaluate where what is beginning might end up.  God probably knew our capacity for handling the cascading nature of history and our ability to weigh the good and bad of it, is seriously lacking. 

Would the Wright bothers have continued their project if they could have seen the way mankind would use their innovation during World War II and the devastating impact delivered to the innocent ones who had not one ounce of control over what happened to the world around them?  Then again, who can measure the good done with the delivery of humanitarian aid to those helpless thousands in need, or the life flight for the innocent child, who suffers the result of a drunk driver or the hideous rampage of an out of control disease and needs to get to the only source of help quickly.  

Maybe it is good we cannot see very far into the future; good we cannot see the bad that can happen to the good idea and the good that can come out of the bad beginning.  I personally am glad I have limited understanding of the complicated future and have lived long enough to learn the reality of "in all things God works for the good of those who love Him, who have been called according to His purpose."  What will come of those projects we start in life, whether they have great endings or not, we know whatever happens, God is a part of it; therefore, just as St. Augustine said, "love God and do what you want." I start what I do because I want to, then ask Him to bless it and say everyday, "Thank you God for letting me be a part of it."